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  • Daniel Kamenetzky


Updated: Aug 24, 2023

After the significant enthusiasm that the media expressed about Arda Guler's transfer to Real Madrid, I explore the implications for a young player of this type of promotion to a highly competitive senior team.

Arda Guler has been playing for an adult team for two seasons, and we can already observe the outcome of promoting "unfinished" players to a level of competition that exceeds their current capacities.

His tremendous technical and tactical abilities are well described. However, as I present in this report, most critical variables have not been considered, and the consequences are noticeable: incomplete mastery of critical techniques, incomplete biological maturation, and consequently, an accumulation of severe injuries that have caused him to miss 130 days of soccer in just a year.

According to Spandrel Analytics' criteria, the promotion of an academy player should only proceed when ALL performance variables reach a level that ensures safety and opportunities for success for the player. Soccer leadership can reduce the risk and secure a safe long-term career for young prospects through an appropriate methodological evaluation and analysis of all critical performance variables, rather than relying solely on a "subjective reading" of a player's skill.

At Spandrel Analytics, we perform an analytical process for player promotion and transfer value evaluation, which guarantees objectivity and thorough analysis to ensure a safe and successful transition for both the player and the club.

To learn more about our work strategy, please contact me at



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